Challenge planner

With my edge and this firm's rules, how often does it pass, is the fee worth it, and how big can one trade be?

Step 1: Your edge, their rules

Seven numbers go in; a seeded simulation gives one pass rate and one breach rate.

Win rate

Reward to risk

Risk per trade

Trades per day

Profit target

Daily loss limit

Maximum drawdown

Pass rate: 97.8%; Median trading days to pass: 11 days
Breaches: 2.2%; 2,000 simulated challenges

Step 2: The deal

The pass rate from step one meets the fee, the account and the split, and becomes one expected value.

Challenge fee

Account size

Profit split

Fee refunded on pass

Expected value per attempt: +$6,248.20; First payout if you pass: $6,900.00
Pass rate that breaks even: 7.2%

Step 3: Your size ceiling

The firm's limits and your stop give the largest size one stop-out cannot breach.

Stop distance

Pip value per lot

$10 for a standard lot of EUR/USD.

Largest safe size: 25.00 lots; The rule that binds: the daily loss limit

How it works

Three calculators as one flow. Your edge and the firm's rules give a simulated pass rate; the pass rate and the deal give an expected value; the rules and your stop give the largest safe size. The simulation is the same seeded model as the pass probability calculator, so equal inputs give equal answers on every device.

Scenarios are saved in this browser only: nothing is sent anywhere, and no account is needed.

Questions

Where are my scenarios kept?

In this browser, on this device. Clearing the site's data removes them, and they do not follow you to another device.

Can I compare two firms' deals?

Yes: save a scenario per firm and the table below the planner puts them side by side.