Challenge ROI calculator
Result
+$1,225.00
- First payout if you pass
- $6,900.00
- Pass rate that breaks even
- 7.2%
Not investment advice
Expected value = pass probability × first payout, minus the fee
With your numbers: 25% × $6,900.00 − $500.00 = +$1,225.00
How it works
The first payout is the profit target times the account times your split, plus the fee where the firm refunds it. The expected value is your pass probability times that payout, minus the fee. The pass rate that breaks even is the fee divided by the payout: above it an attempt is worth its fee under these assumptions, below it the fee is the product.
Questions
Where do I get an honest pass probability?
Simulate it from your own numbers in the pass probability calculator. Guessing high is the usual way this arithmetic goes wrong.
Does this count repeated attempts and resets?
No, it prices one attempt. Reset discounts and free retries improve the numbers per attempt; model them by lowering the fee.
Is a positive expected value a reason to buy?
No. It is planning arithmetic under assumptions you choose. Nothing on this site is investment advice.