Pass probability.
With my numbers, how often does this challenge actually pass?
Run it on your own numbers.
Every figure comes from what you type, and the formula behind the answer is printed under it.
Pass probability
With my win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade, how often does this challenge actually pass?
Simulated pass rate
97.8%
A seeded simulation of 2,000 challenges, trade by trade: fixed win rate and R multiple, fixed fractional risk, daily limit checked against each day's start, total drawdown against the initial balance, no slippage and no correlation between trades. The same inputs always produce the same figure. A model, not a promise.
How it is computed
The page simulates 2,000 challenges trade by trade: each trade wins at your win rate and pays your reward-to-risk, risk is a fixed fraction per trade, the daily limit is checked against each day's starting equity and the max drawdown against the initial balance. The simulation is seeded from your inputs, so the same inputs always return the same answer.
The model is deliberately simple: no slippage, no correlation between trades, no news gaps, and a static drawdown. Real results will differ; the value is comparing scenarios honestly, not predicting one.
Runs in your browser over the numbers you type. Nothing is stored, nothing is sent anywhere, and no result is a recommendation or financial advice.
Asked about this calculator.
Short answers in the same plain arithmetic the calculator uses.
Why do the same inputs always give the same result?
The simulation is seeded from the inputs themselves. A figure that changed on every refresh would imply a precision the model does not have, so it does not do that.
What moves the pass rate the most?
Risk per trade, in both directions. More risk reaches the target faster but breaches limits far more often; the simulation makes that trade-off visible instead of theoretical.
Can I use the output in the ROI calculator?
Yes, that is the intended pairing. Carry the simulated pass rate into the challenge ROI calculator as your pass estimate and the fee prices itself.
This tool provides an indicative comparison of spreads and estimated execution costs based on periodic snapshots from connected data feeds and normalized trade assumptions. Displayed values are not tradable quotes and may differ from prices available on any provider's live accounts. Spreads vary by account type, server, liquidity conditions, and time of day. Competitor names and marks belong to their respective owners; no affiliation or endorsement is implied. The "Average Prop Firm" benchmark is a computed composite of sampled competitor feeds, not the published pricing of any specific firm. Cost estimates use a normalized trade scenario and do not constitute financial advice or a prediction of trading results.