Result
97.8%
- Breaches a limit
- 2.2%
- Median trading days to pass
- 11 days
- Simulated challenges
- 2,000
Not investment advice
Pass rate = the share of 2,000 simulated challenges that reach the target before a limit
How it works
The page simulates 2,000 challenges trade by trade: each trade wins at your win rate and pays your reward to risk, the risk is a fixed share of equity, the daily limit is checked against each day's starting equity and the maximum drawdown against the starting balance. The simulation is seeded from your inputs, so the same inputs always give the same answer.
The model is simple on purpose: no slippage, no link between one trade and the next, no news gaps, and a static drawdown. Real results will differ; its value is comparing scenarios honestly, not predicting one.
Questions
Why do the same inputs always give the same result?
The simulation is seeded from the inputs themselves. A figure that changed on every refresh would suggest a precision the model does not have.
What moves the pass rate most?
Risk per trade, both ways. More risk reaches the target sooner but breaches the limits far more often; the simulation shows that trade-off in numbers.
Can I use the result in the ROI calculator?
Yes, that is the intended pairing: carry the simulated pass rate into the challenge ROI calculator as your pass estimate. The challenge planner does both in one place.