Risk to reward.
Does my stop, target and win rate combine into a positive expectancy at all?
Run it on your own numbers.
Every figure comes from what you type, and the formula behind the answer is printed under it.
Risk to reward
Do my stop, target and win rate add up to an edge at all?
Expectancy per trade
+0.35 R
Expectancy = win rate x reward minus loss rate x risk, in R (one R is your per-trade risk). It only grades the three numbers you typed; it cannot tell you whether the win rate itself is real.
How it is computed
Reward to risk is the distance to the target divided by the distance to the stop. The breakeven win rate is 1 divided by (1 plus that ratio): at 1.5R you break even winning 40 percent of the time. A win rate above breakeven is an edge; below it, the setup loses money no matter how it feels.
Runs in your browser over the numbers you type. Nothing is stored, nothing is sent anywhere, and no result is a recommendation or financial advice.
Asked about this calculator.
Short answers in the same plain arithmetic the calculator uses.
Is a higher reward-to-risk always better?
Not by itself. Wider targets are hit less often, so the ratio and the win rate move against each other. What matters is the pair of them relative to breakeven, which is exactly what the calculator prices.
Does spread change my real ratio?
Yes. The spread and commission are paid on every trade, which shortens the target and lengthens the stop in effect. On tight setups the difference between firms on the live board is a meaningful share of the R.
What expectancy do I need to pass a challenge?
Positive, sustained over enough trades to reach the target before a limit is hit. The pass probability calculator turns that sentence into a simulated number.
This tool provides an indicative comparison of spreads and estimated execution costs based on periodic snapshots from connected data feeds and normalized trade assumptions. Displayed values are not tradable quotes and may differ from prices available on any provider's live accounts. Spreads vary by account type, server, liquidity conditions, and time of day. Competitor names and marks belong to their respective owners; no affiliation or endorsement is implied. The "Average Prop Firm" benchmark is a computed composite of sampled competitor feeds, not the published pricing of any specific firm. Cost estimates use a normalized trade scenario and do not constitute financial advice or a prediction of trading results.